The federal government’s budget cuts that officially went into effect on March 1 got lots of headlines but may have fewer implications than all the attention suggests, BloombergBlack Chief Investment Officer Simeon Hyman writes.
A few points to keep in mind:
–The cuts aren’t likely to cripple the economy, but they could hurt the U.S. economic growth rate by as much as one-half of 1 percentage point, which is significant but probably not devastating.
–Washington’s budget impasse in general will probably keep the U.S. Federal Reserve in stimulus mode, so interest rates or bond yields may take a breather from their recent run-up.
–Some individual stock sectors could be hurt by the sequester, notably defense and technology, but stocks in general aren’t likely to suffer much as a direct result.
Hyman believes the budget standoff in Washington, broadly speaking, will probably have little effect on stocks and is probably a plus for bonds.
In other analysis about U.S. Large Cap stocks, our investment strategists have noted stocks’ strong performance at the start of 2013. In a note to clients, BloombergBlack concluded that if the U.S. economy fails to grow at a solid pace, U.S. stocks could underperform and offered suggestions about what investors might consider adding to their portfolios. To access that full analysis, join BloombergBlack – a better way for your personal wealth management.